One-third of babies born it 2012 will live to age 100, or will they?

By Administrator posted 30-03-2012 10:02

The latest ONS report on future survival trends has had plenty of media coverage, with the headline result being that around one-third of babies born in 2012 are expected to live to 100. An interesting headline, but how likely is this?

The figures make various assumptions about factors afffecting future mortality, and the further into the future that projections are made, the more uncertain they become. For this reason, ONS present 'high' and 'low' figures alongside the headline number.

For young people (20 and under) the chance of surviving to 100 ranges between 10 per cent and 50 per cent.

For older people, there is more certainty. For example females aged 80 have between a 9 percent and 12 per cent chance of reaching 100.

It will be interesting to see how this pans out; I wonder how many of us will be around?