Health Statistics User Group

  • 1.  Household Projections

    Posted 27 days ago
    The following information has been received from ONS regarding household projections and invites comments:

    The 2016-based Household Projections for England have been published and are available to download from this link: 2016-based Household Projections in England.

     

    This is the first time that the ONS has produced these projections, as they were previously the responsibility of the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG). Previous sets of household projections can be found on the MHCLG website. ONS took responsibility for the household projections in January 2017.

     

    The 2016-based household projections provide statistics on the potential future number of households in England and its local authorities up to 2041. They show the household numbers that would result if the assumptions based in previous demographic trends in population and household formation were to be realised in practice. We publish household population projections every two years. These latest projections supersede the 2014-based household projections. Breakdowns of overall projected numbers of households by household type will be published in autumn 2018.

     

    The main points from the publication are:

    • The number of households in England is projected to increase by 4.0 million (17%) over the next 25 years, from 22.9 million in 2016 to 26.9 million in 2041.
    • This equates to 159,000 additional households each year compared to the 210,000 previously projected.
    • Households headed by someone aged 65 years and over account for 88% of the total growth in households between 2016 and 2041.
    • The highest growth of households is projected to take place in London; while the North East is projected to have the slowest rate of household growth of all regions.
    • Five of the ten local authorities with the highest rate of household growth are in London.

     

    The new methods used for the 2016-based Household projections are outlined in the methodology paper Methodology used to produce household projections for England, 2016-based and a comparison of past projections and estimates can be found in this supporting publication –Household projections for England, comparisons with other sources, 2001 to 2018.

     

    We would welcome any comments on any of our products. Please contact pop.info@ons.gov.uk with any feedback you may have, or tweet our divisional twitter account @RichPereira_ONS.

     

    With kind regards

    Stakeholder Engagement